Would Makhana Be a Good Business?

There's a category of foods I think of as "superfoods in waiting"—ingredients with genuine nutritional value that haven't yet found their moment in Western markets. Makhana, also known as fox nuts or lotus seeds, is one of them. It's been a staple snack in India for centuries, particularly in Bihar where most of the world's supply is grown. Roasted and lightly salted, it has a satisfying crunch somewhere between popcorn and puffed rice.

The question is: would it be a good business?

A Framework for Superfood Businesses

Before diving into makhana specifically, it's worth establishing what makes any superfood a viable business opportunity. I'd argue there are four key factors:

• Cost to produce — What's the end-to-end production cost, including time? Long growing cycles tie up capital and increase risk.
• Supply risk — How vulnerable is production to droughts, floods, or other disruptions? Geographic concentration is a red flag.
• Versatility — Can the ingredient be processed into multiple forms? Rice becomes flour, noodles, crackers, milk, wine. Almonds become butter, milk, flour, oil. More forms mean more market opportunities.
• Market timing — Is there cultural readiness for this product? The best ingredient in the world won't sell if consumers aren't primed to receive it.

Makhana Through This Lens

Applying the framework to makhana reveals some challenges.

Production cost and time: Makhana has a 6-8 month growing cycle. The plants grow in ponds, and harvesting is labor-intensive—workers wade through muddy water to collect the seeds by hand. This isn't easily mechanized.

Supply concentration: Nearly all commercial makhana comes from Bihar, India. This geographic concentration creates supply chain risk. A bad monsoon season, political instability, or export restrictions could disrupt supply entirely.

Versatility: This is where makhana struggles most. Unlike chickpeas (hummus, falafel, flour, pasta, snacks) or even snap peas, makhana is primarily consumed in one form: puffed and seasoned. There's makhana kheer (a dessert), but that's about it. Limited versatility means limited market entry points.

Market timing: Unclear. The Western snack market has shown appetite for alternatives—kale chips, chickpea puffs, seaweed snacks—but there's no obvious cultural moment driving interest in Indian lotus seeds specifically.

The Harvest Snaps Playbook

To understand what it takes to bring a niche snack to mainstream success, consider the journey of snap pea crisps.

In 1995, Japanese snack company Calbee developed a pea-based snack called Saya Endou. By 1999, they'd brought it to the U.S. as "Snapea Crisps," targeting Asian grocery stores and health food shops. For over a decade, it remained a niche product.

Then came 2007. A confluence of factors created sudden demand for alternative snacks: the financial crisis made consumers more health-and-value-conscious; the organic food movement was peaking; books like Fast Food Nation and The Omnivore's Dilemma had raised awareness about processed food; and social media was beginning to amplify food trends.

In 2012, Calbee rebranded as "Harvest Snaps" and launched new flavors. By 2013-2014, they'd secured placement in Whole Foods, Costco, Target, and Trader Joe's. Food bloggers and influencers amplified the message. By 2016, they'd relocated their North American headquarters to California and achieved mainstream distribution.

The timeline is instructive: 17 years from Japanese launch to U.S. mainstream success. And even then, it required an external catalyst—the 2007 health food boom—that the company couldn't have predicted or controlled.

What This Means for Makhana

The Harvest Snaps story suggests that even with a genuinely good product, success depends on factors outside your control. A makhana business would need to answer some hard questions:

What's the catalyst? Snap pea crisps benefited from a perfect storm in 2007. What event or trend would make Americans suddenly interested in Indian lotus seeds? The growing interest in Ayurveda? A viral TikTok moment? It's hard to plan for these.

Can you survive the wait? If it took Calbee 17 years, can a makhana startup sustain operations long enough for their moment to arrive? The supply chain challenges make this harder, not easier.

Where's the moat? If makhana does take off, what prevents larger snack companies from entering the market? They have existing retail relationships, manufacturing scale, and marketing budgets. First-mover advantage in food is notoriously weak.

The Verdict

Makhana isn't a bad product. It's nutritious, has a pleasant texture, and offers something different from existing snacks. But the business fundamentals are challenging: concentrated supply chain, limited versatility, no obvious cultural catalyst, and a long timeline to potential mainstream adoption.

If I were evaluating this as an investment, I'd want to see either a significant supply chain innovation (diversifying production beyond Bihar) or a clear path to a cultural moment (perhaps riding the broader wave of Indian cuisine's growing popularity in the West).

Otherwise, it's a patient bet that the world will eventually discover what Bihar has known for centuries. And patience, in the snack business, is expensive.